The Future of Almost Everything
Patrick Dixon
Summary
Book written several years that guesses about the future and makes a lot of predictions that turn out to be true (Amazon, cloud computing, etc.)
Notes
Each of us reads the world through our own set of glasses, which distorts our perception and reactions, shaped by our culture, birthplace, history and experiences
The single word that will drive the future is emotion
Daily life in 2030 will be pretty similar to what it is today
Forces of the FUTURE
- Fast: speed of change, wild cards, digital technology
- Urban: future of urbanization, demographics, health, fashion
- Tribal: future nations, cultures, social networks, brands, teams
- Universal: globalization, retail, trade, manufacturing
- Radical: death of politics, rise of activism, sustainability
- Ethical: values., motivation, leadership, aspiration, spirituality
Risk managers have to be independently minded informed by the trends outside their industry
Problem of short termism
By 2030, Asia’s economic output will be bigger than the US and EU combined
Simplicity will be a survival issue
Quantum computing means a million times faster
The internet of things, big data and cloud computing will win out (IT HAS)
Cybercrime will be the greatest threat to the world in the next 50 years and for centuries
There are secret backdoors in every device
Huge investment in Africa
Future of real estate linked to cities
Immigration will be a hot issue for the next 30 years
Greatest health challenges are all related to aging in next 20 years
The greatest drugs of all time will rejuvenate every call and increase efficiency of the mitochondria
Expect orphan diseases to still generate revenue
You do not own your genes, the company that uses it does
Biotech and gene editing/cloning will forever alter the human race
People belong to many tribes. Understand their tribes and you understand them
Germany will be the central tribe in Europe
Create a tribe and money follows
Search engines may censor your views
Expect a lot of match fixing in sports going forward
Busy professionals are becoming too tired for sex and intimacy
Alcohol with be a growing problem - many more people will die from this than other drugs
Expect consolidations across industries and mega-corps
Look for trade growth in Latin America and Africa
This next century will be the century of Asia
China will pivot from export led growth to domestic market dominance
India has a highly educated and ambitious young workforce but corruption will hold them back
A growing area for private banking will be philanthropic advice
Expect rapid growth of virtual cash (BTC) but governments hate it and will regulate it
It’s likely that telecom companies merge w/ banks
Expect huge growth in insurance industry in emerging markets
Expect boom for aviation but mainly in Asia and emerging markets
Expect huge boom in space tourism by 2035
Boom in cruise travel over next 10 years
Basis of education will be questioned as we don’t need money but understanding
Key to innovation will be more diverse teams
Continue to expect political volatility, instability and radical changes in politics
Expect democratic countries to continue to lose power
The Arctic is one of the richest areas in the world for un extracted fossil fuels
Shift to green energy not only because of climate change but also national security given where most oil comes from (Saudi, Iraq, Russia, etc.)
Huge investment in energy storage and power grids
Food and energy/oil prices are forever linked
Safeguarding water supplies will be a key challenge
New focus on the health and performance aspects of food
Meat substitutes with the right texture and taste
More virtual teams and organizations across continents
There will be a ‘big idea’/philosophy like commission that comes up in the next century
The new generation is particularly focused on purpose and how they’re changing the world
‘Life is too short to waste it doing things you don’t believe in.’
Ease of mind is the whisper of conscience and a powerful guide to future ethics
The fundamental question for every company - will this decision make the world a better or worse place
Huge growth in research on human happiness
Political correctness will grow in power
Calls for euthanasia will become almost irresistable
New breakthroughs in pain and pain-saving drugs will skyrocket
Global market for a new world religion for the millennial generation
The greatest influence is always example