Geopolitical Alpha
Marko Papic
Summary
Good frameworks to think about geopolitics and how the world is rapidly shifting away from what we've been used to the last few decades
Rating: 3/5
Notes
The era of geopolitical ignorance is over
The training and experience of the past 35 years have woefully under prepared the West’s financial and corporate communities for the paradigm shit coming
The story of the rise and fall of empires: stability breeds collapse
The 2020 financial industry is poorly prepared for the geopolitical and political paradigm shifts afoot
Investors need to focus on constraints rather than policy makers preferences and beliefs
Gold is a hedge for inflation but when disaster strikes, investors want cash, which is why king dollar appreciated at the height of Covid
‘If something blows up, just close your eyes and buy’
Geopolitics were integral to most major economic trends the last 60 years
‘The ideas of economists and political philosophers both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood’ - John Keynes
The material world is the concrete foundation on which other things ultimately rest
Material conditions create human reality. Thought systems develop around this material condition and are a derivative of it
The world is at an unsustainable extreme between the share of the economy going to corporate profits and the share going to labour
More information does not necessarily help one’s forecast. The quality of data matters
Diagnositicity is the second pillar of the constraint framework (the first is material dialectic)
3rd pillar is the idea of fundamental attribution error - the person vs. the situation
The situation is a better indicator of the outcome than the person
Preferences are optimal. And subject to constraints whereas constraints are neither optional nor subject to preference
Policy makers talk their own book so don’t always trust them
Always beware of the talking heads
Talk to academics if trying to become knowledgeable on a topic
Power is the most important constraint for individuals, especially policymakers
The medium voter is a more powerful indicator of market behaviour than an individual policymaker so follow what issues the median voter cares about
Markets are not arational and rather driven by narratives
Bond yields can be more powerful than missiles
The key to harnessing geopolitical alpha is betting against the spread, not trying to predict who wins the game
Never tie personal ideology to outcomes when thinking of geopolitics
Laissez faire politics are done in the West
Leave ideology and unfounded bias out of policy discussions
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Make Something Wonderful
Steve Jobs
Summary
The life of Steve Jobs in his own words
Rating: 5/5
Notes
Make something wonderful and put it out there
‘You appear, have a chance to blaze in the sky, then you disappear’
When you’re a stranger in a place, you notice thing you don’t otherwise (Jobs after India trip)
Whenever you start with nothing, always shoot for the moon. You have nothing to lose.
You never achieve what you want without falling on your face a few times
Never be afraid to fail. You never achieve what you want without falling flat on your face a few times
We are never taught to listen to our intuitions, to develop and nurture them. But if you do pay attention to these subtle insights, you can make them come true
Creativity equals connecting previously unrelated experiences and insights others don’t see
Believe that some of what you follow with your heart will come back and make your life richer. And it will. And you will gain even firmer trust on your instincts and intuitions
Make your avocation your vocation. Make what you love your work.
The journey is the reward. The reward isn’t in the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, it’s in crossing the rainbow
To find A+ talent, if experienced, look at their track record and results
The world we know is a human creation and we can push it forward
The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do (read whole ad ‘here’s to the crazy ones)
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then is not an act but a habit - Aristotle
Hire people better than you are
You can’t plan to meet the people who will change your life
It’s impossible to connect the dots looking forward, but they make sense looking backwards so you have to trust the dots will somehow connect in your future
Everything around you that you call life was made up by people no smarter than you
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Free E-book download here
