We’re living through a fascinating economic experiment:

We’re living through a fascinating economic experiment.

Just watched this video a friend sent me on the inflation of Ancient Rome and how it led to its demise. 

Is America on the same path?

The American empire is failing.

America is losing its control over the world. 

It doesn’t make enough stuff.

More countries rely on China as a trading partner than America.

That is not good for America.

They haven’t invested enough in their population.

Rather they spent trillions of dollars on wars that got nowhere.

The Korean War, Vietnam, the Gulf War, the War in Iraq, Afghanistan.

All failures.

What did they accomplish by going to those places?

Trillions of dollars of money evaporated and a bunch of rich warmongers.

Meanwhile China spent trillions of dollars building Belt Road and taking over Africa, South America and the rest of Asia. They went after owning control of the world’s supplies.

They built all this infrastructure around the world, often at a discount rate at the time, because they were playing the long game.

They knew that to have an empire that competed with America, they needed to build and own the world’s infrastructure.

That’s what they’re doing.

It’s why the South China sea is so important to them.

It’s one of the biggest shipping channels in the world.

No wonder they’re building man-made islands.

Meanwhile, America has its own domestic issues.

People are fighting about Joe Rogan and Spotify instead of worrying about what’s really going on.

Addressing actual problems facing America.

The propaganda machine is in full force right now.

Wouldn’t be surprised if America went to war over Ukraine because they’re going to have their own economic crisis with the stock market collapse.

This is the dilemma the central bankers find themselves in, BY THEIR OWN DOING.

Interest rates are at record lows.

If they raise interest rates to curb inflation, they will crash the market.

Trillions of dollars will disappear.

A lot of people will suffer.

If they don’t raise rates enough, inflation runs out of control and that has major societal ramifications. 

Hyperinflation destroys countries.

Especially in a country of 330 million people like America.

Pick your poison central bankers.

The issue is how goes America, how goes the world right now.

That means crises all over the world.

Neither choice is great but eventually, someone’s going to have to make a decision.

Do you choose the short term over the long term?

Do you let society evolve or do you keep the bubble going to where you hyperinflate the dollar?

Unless you have a deflationary crash.

Then the central bankers don’t have to make a decision.

It’ll be made for them.

Then what?

If the market does crash and the central bank doesn’t step in, it means millions of people could lose everything.

But then if they step in without debt restructuring or defaulting, everything gets way more expensive and society could collapse on itself.

Damn. I hope none of these come true.

Both scenarios are devastating because they will be so bad for so many.

Through no fault of their own, millions of people will suffer.

Yet I can’t help but talk about this.

I can’t help but see the writing on the metaphorical wall that is our world.

Debt needs to be restructured.

That means issues for many societies.

Ray Dalio has been telling the world for years.

The future might look a lot different than we’re used to, but it’s happened many times before.

History follows certain patterns that are pretty uniform across empires.

America is on the down. China is on the up.

How this all unfolds will be interesting to watch.

Hopefully, the US restructures its debts, reforms its capital markets and changes its laws.

Will that actually happen?

Absolutely not. But one can dream.

Too many powerful people have too much money to keep things going as is.

Don’t be surprised if we see bailouts across the world.

Those in power need to keep the system goes is.

But it doesn’t work for everyone.

Will we ever get to a system that works for everyone?

Not really.

There will always be winners and losers.

The goal should be equal access to opportunity, not equal outcome.

Those who work harder and create innovation should be rewarded.

Yet they should also pay their fair share to the country.

There’s no perfect system but if capitalism can be reformed properly where those who commit white-collar crimes, in particular, are properly punished for the destruction they’ve caused, maybe the system could get better.

That’s not how it works in reality though. Too many powerful people have access. They live in a different society. The rule of law doesn’t mean anything to them.

They’re also the ones still with money when the collapse inevitably occurs, while the rest of society suffers.

How the next economic crisis unfolds is anyone’s guess.

We’re living through a fascinating economic experiment.

Who knows where the world is going.

But it’s interesting to think about.