Why the stock market is doomed – twitter thread:

Full Twitter thread - https://twitter.com/anishkbio/status/1458268835161718790 

Need to re-edit this for the website but too lazy at this point.

Why the stock market is doomed:

Here are all the reasons why I believe we’re in the biggest market bubble of all time

1. The Buffet indicator, a ratio of the total value of the US market divided by US GDP, is at 216%, the highest it’s ever been.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

2. Margin debt, which is borrowed money from the banks, is at all time high of $903B

https://ycharts.com/indicators/finra_margin_debt

The Shiller PE ratio, which is a metric for valuing the market, is at 39.90, a level not seen since the 2000 bubble. The 1929 bubble only got to 30.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

More than 5% inflation in the US, levels not seen in recent history.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

>1 trillion in excess reverse repo usage since August 11th indicating excess liquidity

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

Evictions steadily rising as the federal moratorium has ended

https://www.nbc26.com/news/local-news/after-the-end-of-the-federal-eviction-moratorium-evictions-are-steadily-rising-in-wisconsin

Global OTC derivatives exposure increases from $11T to $15T in the first half of 2020.

https://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy2011.htm

Fed officials Kaplan and Rosengren resign due to actively trading their own portfolio

https://news.yahoo.com/a-timeline-of-the-federal-reserves-trading-scandal-104415556.html

Nancy Pelosi trade alerts drawing retail trader following

https://news.yahoo.com/retail-traders-follow-nancy-pelosis-stock-moves-to-find-winners-163943788.html

Debt ceiling coming up to another key decision in December

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/09/senate-dems-year-end-train-wreck-520275

Meanwhile billionaires are having an ego battle over the race to space during a global pandemic https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/14/tech/jeff-bezos-richard-branson-elon-musk-space-race-scn/index.html

Supply chain crisis driving inflation higher as global output slows https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/supply-chain-crisis-has-central-banks-facing-stagflation-lite

Chinese real estate debt crisis, led by Evergrande https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/09/evergrande-debt-crisis-global-economy/

Famous investors like Howard Marks, Stanley Druckenmiller and Jeremy Grantham talking about how everything is in bubble

Druckenmiller - https://twitter.com/CundillCapital/status/1456332471432265731

Marks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Orpkcv4iSyk

Grantham - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w

Bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto currencies hitting all time highs https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-btc-ethereum-eth-reach-all-time-highs-once-more-multi-coin-analysis/

Tesla trading like a penny stock over the last few weeks as it gained ~50% in 2 weeks, equivalent to hundreds of billions of dollars

https://twitter.com/shortl2021/status/1454412120674734087?s=20

The Baltic Dry Index, a widely used benchmark in shipping, has dropped 52% since it’s October peak, which has not been seen since 2008. https://twitter.com/wolf_vukovic/status/1457836367078170630 

You know what I think.

https://twitter.com/anishkbio/status/1428778831012323338?s=20

We’re in for a wild next few years.

Let’s see.