Do debts get restructured?

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Do debts get restructured?

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Wrote a Twitter thread I’ve reposted below

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The US is either going to default or hyperinflate. The emerging markets will break before that happens. Which ones and what comes out of it remains to be seen. But we’re in GFC 2.0 and the EM crises are just emerging.

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Europe can’t afford energy. Russia has them by the balls. Germany and France didn’t realize how beholden they are to Russia’s oil and gas. Their manufacturing industries are screwed! Reminder - Germany is the 3rd largest manufacturing nation in the world.

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What happens when they can’t make stuff? Businesses shut down. People lose jobs. People lose purpose. Now let’s bring in a European crisis. How are Italy and Greece doing? Not great.

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What happens to them? They have WAY TOO MUCH DEBT! Does Lagarde bail out Greece AGAIN and Italy after running up an deficit? Do you allow moral hazard to continue? Are you going to bail out the biggest risk takers AGAIN - EVEN AFTER 2008?

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They’re doing it for the energy producers in Europe. 1.5 TRILLION DOLLAR MARGIN CALL BY EUROPEAN ENERGY PRODUCERS, BASICALLY BACKSTOPPED BY THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK!

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Remember - a million seconds is 12 days. A billion seconds is 31 years. A trillion seconds is 31,688 years. The scale is hard to comprehend but essentially, EUROPE IS IN TROUBLE, ESPECIALLY COME WINTER!

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Yet Europe is fine right? That’ll never spread over into America, right? China’s real estate debt crisis will never spill over into the West, right? Bullshit!

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The whole world is going to have to go through debt restructuring. Are countries like the US and China, even if they go to war over Taiwan, going to come to the table and agree upon how to restructure their own debts? I don’t believe so. But hopefully I’m wrong

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Maybe we do agree to cooperation. China and the US come to an agreement. All is well. Do I think that’s likely to happen? History tells me… NO. Human behaviour doesn’t change. History tells us greed, ego and nationalistic pride takes over

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Sadly, millions to billions of people will have to suffer the consequence of the very few. Those in power who choose to play the game of Risk with people’s lives. Maybe that’s always what we were destined for. But I’d like to think otherwise

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I’d like to think we can change things. We can do better. We can learn from each other. We can root out evil and greed and treat our neighbour like our own family. Humans are good people

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But it’s up to us to decide the future. Either we choose to listen to the propaganda that’s existed throughout history and always put sides against each other… Or we can choose to see our politicians for who they are… Liars, scam artists and bullshitters!

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They’re trying to get re-elected. They don’t care about you or your opinions. So it’s up to you to decide for yourself. Are you going to believe what you’re told or are you going to think for yourself? The choice is yours…

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Choose wisely because the next decade is up to the people. Capital is being challenged and labour is coming to power. We decide how the future goes from here. Let’s hope those in power don’t screw it up. 

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Damn, I need a drink..

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