More bold investing predictions Apr.13.21:

More bold investing predictions following the last one I did (here).

The house of cards the US fed has created by printing money is going to fall. The Internet is going to take it down. Hedge funds got greedy and shorted too many stocks, particularly the ones that have existed for generations (AMC, GME). DFV saw a gap in the market that no one else saw and took the opportunity. Then others started buying it. Then when the gamma/short squeeze happened in January, people saw what was happening.

More people started paying attention. More people began following this. People around the world were digging into public documents and laws and SEC violations and FINRA fines. They were sharing this with everyone else in public. It became a positive cycle and created a community that has given people hope.

Meanwhile hedge funds tripled down with all the extra leverage they’re getting from their brokers. Once margin calls start happening, it’s over.

The rest of the world doesn’t know what’s going to hit them. When crashes happen, it’s not just a bit. It’s potentially half your money disappearing. For new investors, that’s something they’ve never experienced before. Half your money could disappear. The money you’ve saved for years could disappear. If you’re on margin, you’re done. If you have billions in the market, billions will evaporate into thin air.

People don’t remember what it’s like to experience a crash. Every commercial investment manager right now is talking about how now is a great time to invest and buy IPOs. They have to. They’re incentivized too. They can’t speak their mind about what’s going to happen in the market because investors will pull their money.

Just saw a video about Coinbase’s direct listing happening tomorrow (April 14 2021). I think it’s going to be a disaster when the market crashes. If people all of a sudden start rapidly selling and flooding the crypto market, we’ll see the real test of who Coinbase is.

People don’t appreciate that crypto only came into existence post 2008. It still hasn’t withstood the test of a massive market crash. No, the crash just before Covid I don’t count. Also crypto suffered during that time.

Is it truly anti-fragile? We’ll find out. I don’t think it is in the short term. Whales and large holders are going to flood the market and go back to US dollars.

Crypto is going to crash with the stock market. I could be very wrong but it will be a test of fragility. I anticipate a lot of cryptos will completely blow up, but the ones that survive will be anti-fragile. 

The better question is though are companies going to start pulling their Bitcoin and crypto holdings from Coinbase. Because if they do, it’ll be a massive sell off.

My bet is Coinbase crashes from this price. They’re speculating it’s going to be listed at $250/share. GODDAM. They’ll be back once people get more confidence in crypto again, but listing at a $100B valuation is insane. The downside is way more enticing than the upside. Definitely buying puts after the stock runs up tomorrow.

Unclear what the repercussions of a crash will be, but it’s interesting to speculate.

A bunch of fraud is going to get exposed. Citadel is going to crater. New millionaires will be created around the world. The redistribution of wealth is going to be like nothing we’ve ever seen before, and probably unlike anything we’ll see again. The redistribution away from institutions to individuals is happening. Decentralization is beginning to take place and this event may be the one that sets it off.

It’s going to get wild.

I feel like the Joker right now writing this. 

That part in the Dark Knight when he says ‘And. Here. We. Go.’

It’s coming.

The reckoning will be here.

I’m ready.