You won’t be taken seriously:
You won’t be taken seriously.
You have to prove it.
Prove it through results.
Prove it through work.
Prove it by showing up day in and day out.
No one believes you can get there.
No one believes you can be a great investor and a great writer.
They’ll tell you to focus on one.
They’ll say you got lucky.
That you were fortunate to see the biggest bubble in the history of America.
Hindsight will show how crazy this environment was.
But why wasn’t anyone noticing it while it was happening?
Why was everyone so drunk on free liquidity?
Everyone, everywhere, all at once.
The whole world is massively overleveraged.
The world’s been printing money non-stop for decades, but there’s no going back now.
Currency devaluations.
Defaults.
Bankruptcies.
Not just companies but countries.
Civil unrest.
Possibly dictators.
Why?
Because of the short-term actions of the few.
Central bankers and politicians.
Shifting policies to line their own pockets while most of the world suffers the consequences.
Gas prices are going up every day with no end in sight.
Food prices keep skyrocketing.
It took cheaper food prices in 2011 to cause the Arab Spring.
Don’t be surprised when we see more of those uprisings this next decade.
When people can’t afford to eat, drive and heat their house, what other choice do they have but to rebel against the existing system.
Central bankers have a fine line to walk but the problem is, they’re too far gone.
Either decision they make is disastrous and radically alter the course of history.
Let inflation keep running and risk currency defaults around the world.
Hike interest rates to curb inflation and you kill asset markets and can’t pay back the interest on your debt.
Luke Gromen has talked about how central banks get debt under control by inflating it away.
Have 100% inflation for several years and then you can change monetary policy again quickly because your debt is much more reasonable.
He tweeted about it today on how Israel did that and life went on as normal.
Problem is America has the global reserve currency with many countries tied to the US dollar.
If they inflate away their debt, you’ll get revolutions worldwide.
Yet if you curb asset prices, your economy goes into a recession, millions of people lose jobs and people will be on the street anyway.
Both terrible choices yet they have to make one.
Started thinking and writing about this a year ago and I thought I was crazy.
Yet every day that passes, more smart macro voices are talking about this.
They’ve all studied history and understand how these situations have ended in the past.
Not good.
Here’s why I know I’m on the right track - I’ve gone deeper than most people in anticipating what’s the come based on the rhythm of history and also betting on something the world has never seen - Gamestop blowing up while the rest of the market tanks.
Remember, we’re all just pawns in this grand game.
As has happened many times before so shall likely happen again in a similar fashion.
Be prepared. Invest in yourself. Study history.
‘The farther back you look, the further forward you’ll see’ Winston Churchill
Don’t worry if you won’t be taken seriously.
History will be the ultimate judge.
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