You won't be taken seriously

You won’t be taken seriously:

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You won’t be taken seriously.

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You have to prove it.

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Prove it through results.

Prove it through work.

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Prove it by showing up day in and day out.

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No one believes you can get there.

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No one believes you can be a great investor and a great writer.

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They’ll tell you to focus on one.

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They’ll say you got lucky.

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That you were fortunate to see the biggest bubble in the history of America.

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Hindsight will show how crazy this environment was.

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But why wasn’t anyone noticing it while it was happening?

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Why was everyone so drunk on free liquidity?

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Everyone, everywhere, all at once.

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The whole world is massively overleveraged.

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The world’s been printing money non-stop for decades, but there’s no going back now.

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Currency devaluations.

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Defaults.

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Bankruptcies.

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Not just companies but countries.

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Civil unrest.

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Possibly dictators.

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Why?

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Because of the short-term actions of the few.

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Central bankers and politicians.

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Shifting policies to line their own pockets while most of the world suffers the consequences.

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Gas prices are going up every day with no end in sight.

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Food prices keep skyrocketing.

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It took cheaper food prices in 2011 to cause the Arab Spring.

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Don’t be surprised when we see more of those uprisings this next decade.

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When people can’t afford to eat, drive and heat their house, what other choice do they have but to rebel against the existing system.

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Central bankers have a fine line to walk but the problem is, they’re too far gone.

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Either decision they make is disastrous and radically alter the course of history.

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Let inflation keep running and risk currency defaults around the world.

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Hike interest rates to curb inflation and you kill asset markets and can’t pay back the interest on your debt.

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Luke Gromen has talked about how central banks get debt under control by inflating it away.

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Have 100% inflation for several years and then you can change monetary policy again quickly because your debt is much more reasonable.

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He tweeted about it today on how Israel did that and life went on as normal.

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Problem is America has the global reserve currency with many countries tied to the US dollar.

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If they inflate away their debt, you’ll get revolutions worldwide.

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Yet if you curb asset prices, your economy goes into a recession, millions of people lose jobs and people will be on the street anyway.

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Both terrible choices yet they have to make one.

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Started thinking and writing about this a year ago and I thought I was crazy.

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Yet every day that passes, more smart macro voices are talking about this.

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They’ve all studied history and understand how these situations have ended in the past.

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Not good.

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Here’s why I know I’m on the right track - I’ve gone deeper than most people in anticipating what’s the come based on the rhythm of history and also betting on something the world has never seen - Gamestop blowing up while the rest of the market tanks.

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Remember, we’re all just pawns in this grand game. 

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As has happened many times before so shall likely happen again in a similar fashion.

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Be prepared. Invest in yourself. Study history.

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‘The farther back you look, the further forward you’ll see’ Winston Churchill

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Don’t worry if you won’t be taken seriously.

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History will be the ultimate judge.

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