Hot Commodities
Jim Rogers
Summary
How to invest in commodities from the world's great investors. Could be extremely relevant if we enter a bear market in 2022
Rating: 4/5
Notes
If no one wants to be in a market, it’s a good time to look at investing in that market
Wandering away from the action is where to find new action
Check out Reuters CRB commodities price index
Investing in commodities can be a hedge against a bear market in stocks, rampant inflation and a downturn in the economy
There’s a new bull market in commodities
When supply and demand are out of whack, it’s a classic sign of a long bull market
Meat requires corn so look for increased corn prices as people eat more meat
No major oil fields discovered in the last few decades
More than 60% of the world’s ethanol (used in gas) is made from sugar
War pushes commodity prices higher
Rising commodity prices hurt companies and their margins so stocks drop
Commodity producing companies and those that support them do well in commodity bull cycles
No bull market in any asset class has gone straight up, periodic corrections always occur
The last leg of a bull market always ends in hysteria, the last leg of a bear market always ends in panic
If stockpiles of commodities are rising, the bull market is over
Commodity futures need less margin
Investing in commodity producing companies can be riskier than buying the things outright
Commodities cannot go to zero while shares in companies can
Bull markets in commodities last 15+ years
If you want to invest in commodities, pick one and learn everything about it
Look at the CRB commodity yearbook
Understand supply of the commodity first
- How much product is there world wide? Existing inventory, mines, geopolitics?
- Are there new sources of supply? Are there potential new suppliers?
Demand:
- What’s the commodity used for? What uses in the future? Any new technological advances?
Returns from commodities were 3 times those of companies producing commodities
Think about buying property in areas rich in commodities
Just buy the commodity itself through futures or a commodity index fund
Trading commodities and trading futures are the same
Commodity futures are highly liquid
Speculators determine the market and they close positions before the expiry date
Don’t sell something short unless it’s unbelievably expensive
Most traders lose most of the time so limit your losses
Contago - prices of futures more expensive farther into the future
The 21st century will be China’s
Supply is tight and China needs more materials now than it has
No fixed currency in history can maintain its peg
Oil production has been declining for years while demand increases
US is extremely dependent on foreign oil
Peak cheap oil has likely already happened
Under investment in the capacity to pump, regime and transport oil and a supply/demand imbalance
Decreased demand does not mean decreased supply is supplies are decreasing further
From 1959 to 2000, commodities outperformed stocks and bonds with less risk and better returns
Bull markets in commodities mean bear markets in stocks and vice versa
When there’s high stage hysteria, it’s the end of the bull market
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Free E-book download here
Make Something Wonderful
Steve Jobs
Summary
The life of Steve Jobs in his own words
Rating: 5/5
Notes
Make something wonderful and put it out there
‘You appear, have a chance to blaze in the sky, then you disappear’
When you’re a stranger in a place, you notice thing you don’t otherwise (Jobs after India trip)
Whenever you start with nothing, always shoot for the moon. You have nothing to lose.
You never achieve what you want without falling on your face a few times
Never be afraid to fail. You never achieve what you want without falling flat on your face a few times
We are never taught to listen to our intuitions, to develop and nurture them. But if you do pay attention to these subtle insights, you can make them come true
Creativity equals connecting previously unrelated experiences and insights others don’t see
Believe that some of what you follow with your heart will come back and make your life richer. And it will. And you will gain even firmer trust on your instincts and intuitions
Make your avocation your vocation. Make what you love your work.
The journey is the reward. The reward isn’t in the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, it’s in crossing the rainbow
To find A+ talent, if experienced, look at their track record and results
The world we know is a human creation and we can push it forward
The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do (read whole ad ‘here’s to the crazy ones)
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then is not an act but a habit - Aristotle
Hire people better than you are
You can’t plan to meet the people who will change your life
It’s impossible to connect the dots looking forward, but they make sense looking backwards so you have to trust the dots will somehow connect in your future
Everything around you that you call life was made up by people no smarter than you
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Free E-book download here
